A recent Gallup survey showed a record-high 43 percent of Americans see themselves as politically independent. And a record-low identified as Democrat, 27%, matching Republican identification at 27 percent. Kansans are also declaring independence. The numbers registering as Unaffiliated and Libertarian are increasing and together now account for 30% of registered voters – four percent higher than registered Democrats. These numbers may help explain why Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein have already launched their independent White House bids. And why the well-funded centrist organization No Labels is seriously weighing its options.
Is 2024 ripe for a third-party? Absolutely, and here’s why.
First, partisan parity.
Four years ago, Joe Biden’s electoral college triumph was decided by three states, Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, where his margins of victory were less than .05 percent. In 2016, it was Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – where margins were less than 1%, that pushed Donald Trump over the top.
Across the last nine presidential elections the national vote margin between the two parties has not exceeded 9 percent.
With such razor thin margins separating the two parties, a third-party stands a good chance of attracting enough votes in one state or another to tip the balance.
For example, the 2000 presidential contest came down to Florida. Democrat Al Gore lost by a mere 537 votes. The extraordinarily small margin raised questions about Green party candidate Ralph Nader’s 97,488 Florida votes.
In Nader’s absence, would Gore have won?
In 1992, Reform party candidate Ross Perot achieved 19% of the popular vote nationwide, though he did not win a single state. But in Maine Perot defeated incumbent George Bush 30.4% to 30.3%. And in Utah Perot outpaced Democrat Bill Clinton 27.3% to 24.6%. In Kansas, Perot secured an impressive 27%. This placed Kansas 5th among states for the independent vote. Meanwhile Bush managed just 38.8%, the lowest Kansas vote share for a Republican candidate since 1912. That year former Republican president Theodore Roosevelt ran as a third-party candidate and split the Republican vote. Bush did win Kansas, but by only 5%, a difference typically used to identify swing states.
Second, voters are deeply frustrated with the two parties and the candidates. Surveys show a record number of Americans hold unfavorable views of Democrats and Republicans. Nearly nine-in-ten agree that Democrats and Republicans spend more time fighting each other than solving the nation’s problems. And a growing number of people identify partisan polarization as the main problem with the political system. This year’s likely nominees are also historically unpopular and voters are clearly dissatisfied about the prospects of a Biden-Trump rematch. More troubling, a mere 28% of Americans are satisfied with the way democracy works, which is down from the historical low of 35% recorded shortly after the Jan. 6th assault on the Capitol.
All of this points to a political environment well-suited for third-party success. Not to win, but to influence the campaign and play spoiler.
The million dollar question is whether a strong third-party candidate would hurt Democrats or Republicans more.