As of Tuesday, September 23rd, the drought monitor report indicates more improvement. The state is up to 82% totally out of dry conditions from 77%. The only abnormally dry, moderate drought parts of Kansas are North Central along the Nebraska and Eastern Kansas along the Missouri Border. The six-to ten-day outlook (September 30 to October 4) indicates a 70 to 80% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and normal to slightly above normal for precipitation. The eight to fourteen-day outlook (October 2 to 8) indicates a 60 to 70% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and normal to slightly above normal for precipitation for precipitation.
For anyone paying attention to what’s happening in crop production, it’s an interesting and challenging time to say the least. Out here, after a challenging five plus years of dealing with drought, heat, and almost every form of severe weather, most of Kansas has worked its way out of drought with reasonably moderate summer temperatures for us. Overall, producers are looking at good to very good corn, milo, and soybean crops compared to recent years. We have had one of the wettest Septembers over the last several decades and most have excellent to too much soil moisture for planting the 2026 wheat crop. This all seems like a good problem to deal with.
Commodity prices are low. Great if you need grain for feeding livestock or producing ethanol. We have strong carryover for much of the old crop. Many areas that normally wouldn’t, will be piling grain on the ground. To help move grain, storage prices will increase. Producers don’t want to sell at these low prices. Many producers have operating loans at much higher interest rates than in previous years. Loans needing paid. As of today, China is out of the market for purchasing U.S. grain and soybeans. Typically, China has been a good customer for our grain. The “Tariff Wars” have two negative effects. Lower exports of our commodities and the ensuing lower prices. And increased costs for inputs with two main causes. First, we import many of our inputs such as pesticides or items purchased contain materials from overseas. Second, energy prices are increasing significantly, on average over six percent just this year. Fule prices have increased. Nitrogen fertilizers take tremendous amounts of energy to produce and process as do other inputs. Whether grain or fertilizers, things must be transported, primarily by truck and those costs are increasing.