The drought monitor report as of Tuesday, July 21st is basically unchanged from last week. The state is slowly trending drier and this upcoming week鈥檚 weather won鈥檛 help. The six to ten-day forecast (July 28 to August 1) indicates a 60 to 70% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and near normal for precipitation. The eight to fourteen-day forecast indicates (July 30 to August 5) indicates a 40 to 50% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and near normal for precipitation. Not great for our summer row crops.
As of today, almost all of the corn is developing ears, soybeans are flowering, and grain sorghum is growing towards heading. Today, as area producers deal with various tasks as they head toward fall harvest and preparing to plant the 2027 wheat crop, let鈥檚 take a moment to catch up. What does the climate outlook say and what might producers consider heading towards fall.
路 The outlook for August is for a 33 to 40% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. This isn鈥檛 a great forecast but not horrible either. Through September the outlook is for equal chances of above or below normal for both temperature and precipitation. For October through December as of now the outlook is for a 33 to 40% chance of leaning above normal for temperature. Precipitation looks a bit better with a 40 to 50% chance of leaning above normal for precipitation. The precipitation outlook likely factors in the developing El Nino, however, this may change depending on how strongly it develops. Finally, for the period from January through March, the outlook is calling for equal chances for both as we wait and see what El Nino does.
路 Most corn is several weeks past pollination and developing kernels although hot, dry weather will hurt yields, even under irrigation. Most milo is at least several weeks from heading and can cope with heat better than corn. If the dry pattern in the area continues and soil moisture continues to decrease, soybean yield will likely be hurt the most as August is pod filling season. For soybeans, above normal rainfall is key.
路 One paramount task, now that wheat harvest is over, is controlling volunteer wheat to control the wheat curl mite and therefore wheat streak mosaic virus (WSM). Far too often this is a significant yield limiting factor in the western half of the state. It鈥檚 imperative to control volunteer wheat within two miles of fields going to wheat for at least two weeks prior to planting. This is where you need good neighbors. One of the challenges is when volunteer wheat emerges and that depends upon rainfall. Weeds need controlled anyway on those fields.