The drought monitor report as of Tuesday, October 13, indicates the beneficial effects of last week’s rain but this week’s fell after the deadline. We are 100% unchanged from the previous report. Almost half of Barton County and much of the surrounding area to the south range from moderate to severe drought. The northern third of Barton County is exceptionally dry. The six to ten-day forecast (October 20 to October 24) indicates a 60 to 70% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and 50 to 60% of likely above normal for precipitation. The eight to fourteen-day forecast indicates (October 22 to 28) indicates a 40 to 50% chance of leaning above normal temperatures and a continued 40 to 50% chance of leaning above normal for precipitation. Above average temperatures mean in the upper 70s to low 80s so not bad for establishing wheat. The chance of above normal precipitation is good news but remember moral for October here is approximately two inches.
Most of the state is definitely in much better shape regarding drought than a month ago. Wheat that is up in our area is looking good and starting to tiller. However, last years wheat crop started off in good shape, especially moisture wise and we all know what happened. So today, what is NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, seeing over the next nine to twelve months?
· It’s helpful to remember that we are dealing with a super El Nino and NOAA is still waiting to see just how “super” and how quickly it will abate.
· For this month through December, they are predicting equal chances of above or below normal for temperatures. Precipitation is leaning slightly above normal for precipitation. Remember our normal liquid equivalent precipitation falls off to an inch or so in our area from November through January. Overall, not bad for wheat establishment.
· November through January continues the pattern just mentioned. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens. And within the next three to four weeks, potential changes in El Nino may alter this outlook significantly.
· We start to see a predicted shift in temperatures for December through February, with temperature leaning above normal by 33 to 40%. On the plus side, the precipitation outlook increases to 40 to 50% above normal, which would be welcome, even if in the form of snow or freezing rain. And as long as the temperatures don’t track to far above normal, wheat should be in decent shape.
· NOAA isn’t quite sure about February through April, nothing unusual here, with equal chances of above or below normal for both temperature and precipitation. By January, forecasters and their models should have a better understanding for the outlook.
· Finally, April through June is leaning slightly above normal for temperatures and equal chances for moisture. This may change as the El Nino eases and a possible La Nina develops.
Overall, as of today, the
outlook for the 2027 wheat crop isn’t great but also isn’t bad.