The question was asked repeatedly over the past few years: Was 2016 a fluke?
Most Democrats and Never-Trump Republicans thought so.
After all, Trump won by the slimmest of margins in a few pivotal swing states and lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million.
Then Trump’s tenure in the White House was marked by historically low public approval. And his sagging popularity was key to the crushing defeat in 2020.
The MAGA coalition always posed a significant challenge.
While it supported Trump unconditionally, the group constantly battled against public rebuke and narrow appeal. Moreover, it’s demographic characteristics, which skew male, rural and non-college, are typically obstacles for sustained political engagement.
Frequently dismissed as racist deplorables, misogynists, weird, phobic, low-information, threats to democracy, supporters of a fascist, and more recently garbage, the MAGA-hat-wearing voters could never be the foundation of an expansive electoral coalition.
Yet, Trump’s sweeping victory last week proved a broad coalition could be constructed around working-class voting blocks, stitched skillfully together by populist appeals and reinforced by widespread economic anxiety.
Successful presidential candidates in fact grow their base rather than being limited by it.
Trump assembled a surprisingly diverse set of supporters, netting Republican gains in most counties across the nation, flipping all 7 battleground states, winning the popular vote, and taking back Congress. In big cities, suburbs, rural areas, in red states and in blue, Trump’s margins improved.
The trend cut across demographic categories, with pronounced changes in Latino communities. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 27 percent of Latino voters. In 2024, Trump won 42 percent.Trump’s performance among the working class improved as well. In 2020, Trump edged Biden’s working-class support by 4 points. This time it tripled to 12-points.
Among the white working-class, Trump enjoyed a 25-point margin over Biden. Against Harris, it rose to 30. Trump’s electoral influence also reached Kansas, where most counties shifted right.
In southern Republican strongholds like Cherokee (+2.7%), and the much larger Sedgwick (+1.6%), Trump’s margins advanced. They also improved in the blue college town counties of Douglas (+1.2%) and Riley (+3.3%). In the western counties where Latinos constitute a majority, Trump saw significant growth. Ford county improved 3 percent, Finney 6 percent, Seward 5 percent, and Grant 4 percent.
In short, the 2024 election was a uniform swing for Trump that showcased a new Republican coalition, one that approaches the diversity typically seen within the Democratic party. However, it would be a mistake to overreact and claim that a lasting realignment has taken place. It was a close election. The margin of victory in Wisconsin was 0.9%, 1.4% in Michigan, and 2.1% in Pennsylvania.
Keeping the coalition together will be difficult. Latinos are the new swing voters. And not long ago, Barack Obama drew a large share of the white working class. Circumstances change quickly and future developments could very well benefit Democrats. Finally, Trump’s opponents repeatedly claimed he was a danger to democracy.
Perhaps. But Trump is also a vivid expression of it. He forged and expanded a unique coalition, harnessing the strength of the very democratic institutions that his critics argue he wishes to destroy. It was no fluke.