The drought monitor report as of Tuesday, December 17 is basically unchanged from last week, just a tad better. South of Great Bend is totally out of drought while Barton County is primarily in Moderate drought with the south and southeast portions just abnormally dry. Much improved from a year ago. The six to ten-day outlook (December 24 to 28) indicates a 60 to 70% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and a 40 to 50% chance of leaning above normal for precipitation. The eight to fourteen-day outlook (December 26 to January 1) indicates a 60 to 80% chance of likely above normal for temperatures and a 40 to 50% chance of leaning above normal for precipitation.
As we wrap up 2024 and head into a new year, let’s review some of the top ag stories of 2024. These are not in any particular order.
· Another year gone and still no Farm Bill with just a continuation of the 2018 bill. This provides a great level of uncertainty heading into a change in administrations come January 20th. There are several sticking points but perhaps the largest one is what makes up a majority of the spending – nutrition assistance. What makes passage so difficult, among other items, is that members of the Congress and Senate with years of experience and working together are gone. They viewed this as a less partisan issue and worked together. Hopefully, early in 2025 this will get done.
· The weather is almost always a top story. For Kansas, while not great, moisture conditions improved and summer temperatures a little less extreme. This resulted in a good but not great harvest for many. Wheat this fall looks much better than it has in years. Now it’s time to pay attention to the La Nina off the west coast of South America.
· Prices and farm income. Farm income is lower again this year after a decline last year. Prices for commodities aren’t great for grains and soybeans while better in the cattle and hog side. Input prices are a bit lower but still high. Credit which is vital for most operations is more expensive and the lending industry is concerned and mush more careful.
· In Kansas, the depletion of the Ogallala aquifer and the decrease in reservoir levels is a major story no matter where you obtain water. This is a story this year and for years to come. All levels of producer groups and government agencies are working to develop strategies to manage this looming crisis. The problem and the solutions will have a major impact not only on agriculture but all Kansans and the overall economy.
· Finally, the 2024 election is perhaps the major story of 2024 with the effects starting January 20th, 2025. The promise of tariffs, the Farm Bill, imports and exports of food stuffs, equipment, etc. will all have a profound impact on agriculture. Already, some of our more reliable ag markets are shifting to other sources for items such as corn and soybeans.
There is so much more. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.