The drought monitor, as of Tuesday, March 31st, indicates a continued increase in drought conditions with 19% of the state now out of dry conditions. Almost our entire area is now in moderate drought. Rains from Wednesday aren鈥檛 included in this report. The six to ten day forecast (April 7 to April 11) indicates a 40 to 50% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and a 50 to 60% chance of likely above normal for precipitation. The eight to fourteen-day forecast indicates (April 9 to 15) indicates a 40 to 50% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and a 40 to 50% chance of leaning above normal for precipitation.
It鈥檚 now the first week of April. Dryland corn should be going in the ground within the next couple of weeks, weather permitting, followed by irrigated corn. Mid-May comes the start of grain sorghum followed shortly by soybeans. Every year is challenging when preparing for summer row crops but this year even more so. With everything going on, today, let鈥檚 look at some of choices producers are potentially considering.
路 Especially for dryland corn producers, soil moisture and the long-term weather outlook produce a major challenge. Grain sorghum and soybean planting have a bit more time. If you dig around much of our area, the topsoil is dry. Yet, if you go down about five to eight inches, many spots have decent subsoil moisture. The eight to fourteen-day outlook from NOAA is leaning above normal for precipitation and temperatures. Not a super strong outlook for excessive temperatures. This may provide adequate moisture for germination and seedling establishment. The long-term outlook appears headed for a moderate to strong El Nino building. So, do you plant dryland corn or wait and see? Do you back off the population a bit? Do you plant as early as possible and hope to get seed set before any extreme hot and dry weather? Do you wait and switch to grain sorghum?
路 The
second major factor is the cost of inputs and the value of corn, grain sorghum
and soybeans. Fuel and fertilizer prices
are up, especially nitrogen. Anhydrous,
urea, and UAN solution nitrogen prices are significantly higher and projected
to increase more. Urea is over $800 per
ton which means almost ninety cents for a pound of N. Anhydrous Ammonia is almost $900 per ton or
about fifty-five cents per pound of N.
28% UAN is similarly high. Does
that affect what a producer can afford to put on as N or even the plant
population? Should a producer switch to
something needing less N. Finally, cash
prices for grains and soybeans have improved a bit, but still low when looking
at input costs. What planting decisions
can a producer make to help stay above water and hopefully make a profit. And throw in the increased interest rate
costs for an operating loan.