By CRISTINA JANNEY
Hays Post
Justice Planners, a jail consulting firm, told the Ellis County Commission on Tuesday that it predicts the county will need more jail beds in the next 25 years.
Depending on the scenario, the agency estimated anywhere from 90 to 174 beds would be needed by 2049, which could cost between $8 million and $32 million.
The commission made no decisions on the jail on Tuesday.
The average daily population of the jail year to date is 69 inmates. In 2023, it was 68.7. That rate has stayed relatively steady since 2017, with the exception of 2020 and 2021 during the pandemic.
Various factors influence the number of inmates in the jail and the number of beds needed to safely and securely house those inmates.
The first of those factors is population. The population of Ellis County is estimated to grow by 11.4% between now and 2050, according to the Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University.
The county's male population growth is estimated at 9.3%. Men account for 84% of the Ellis County Jail inmates.
The jail is booking about three inmates per day, which has stayed steady over the last three years. However, bookings are down 31% to 79% from the averages seen from 2017 through 2019 before the pandemic.
Patrick Jablonski, Justice Planners planner/statistician, attributed this to several factors. The jail is rapidly processing low-level offenders through the system.
These low-level offenders are being processed out of the jail in less than a day, whereas other communities the company has worked with see averages closer to two days, he said.
Although the average number of bookings has decreased from pre-pandemic levels, the average length of stay for inmates at the Ellis County Jail has more than doubled since 2017.
Jablonski said the jail is seeing more inmates being held for more serious crimes, and those inmates are being held for more days.
The length of stay during the pandemic was higher partly because the jail was releasing any inmates that it could because of the risk of the spread of COVID-19 infection. That means only the most severe offenders were being held, Jablonski said.
Jablonski presented a chart on the length of stay based on the type of charge.
Inmates with violent felony charges stayed about 26 days in jail in 2022. That increased to 53 days in 2023 and has almost tripled to 144 days year to date in 2024.
"That is the key to the kingdom in understanding the jail's population right there. These individuals have serious offenses. I think I am safe to say these individuals are a danger to the community. You want to keep them held," Jablonski said.
"However, it is taking longer to get these individuals processed through the court system, and that is what is driving the jail's population."
As of early 2024, the number of cases filed in Ellis County courts was far outpacing the number of cases resolved. However, Jablonski said this could have been affected by the cybersecurity attack on the Kansas judicial system.
The consultant gave the county commission three possible scenarios to forecast how the jail's population might grow and the need for beds in 25 years.
The first scenario assumes that Ellis County's current trends will continue. It assumes that inmates' average length of stay will continue to increase, but the number of bookings stays stable. It also takes into account anticipated county population growth.
A lack of attorneys will likely continue to put pressure on the court system and result in delays in cases being processed, Jablonski said.
This scenario predicts an average daily population of 102 inmates requiring 131 beds.
The jail can't operate at full capacity for several reasons. Women can't be housed with men. Violent offenders are usually not housed with offenders who have lower-level crimes. Co-defendants also have to be separated.
The jail also needs to accommodate daily and seasonal fluctuations and peaks.
Based on a very rough estimate of $800 per square foot for the space that needs to be added to the current jail, renovations could cost about $18.9 million.
The second scenario considered that inmates' average length of stay continues to grow, and the number of bookings returns to prepandemic levels.
Jablonski also said law enforcement agencies may be less likely to send inmates to the jail, knowing it is overcrowded. He said once law enforcement officers and community corrections know there is space in the jail, they might start sending more people to jail.
"The time-worn phrase, if you build it, they will come, there's a degree of that. When we talk to stakeholders, there's an awareness of the jail's capacity," Jablonski said. "I do see a realistic scenario where our status quo may miss a little bit to the low side, and you have more people return to custody."
A change in the philosophy at the county attorney's office could also affect the number of bookings at the jail.
The second scenario would result in a need for 174 beds. A rough estimate, also based on the $800 square foot cost, would be about $32.9 million.
The current facility also lacks program space and has an inadequate kitchen.
The third scenario forecasts that inmates' bookings and the average length of stay will return to 2019 levels. This would require an addition of 18 more beds for a total of 90 beds.
The jail would still need to address a lack of program and counseling spaces and an inadequate kitchen. New housing spaces are planned as single-occupancy cells.
The estimated cost of meeting these needs is about $8.1 million.
Alan Richardson, president of Justice Planners, said when designing jail space, you also have to consider the staff.
"They spend more time in this facility than offenders and inmates ever will, and you have to have a good and safe working environment for them, and I think that is kind of borderline with what they have to work with right now."
Justice Planners offered several short-term expansion options to deal with the overcrowding.
• Move the kitchen and laundry to the first floor — would add space for four to six inmates
• Move storage in the exercise area to another location or building — would add space for three to four inmates
• Continue to house inmates out of county
Richardson said the county is already housing inmates outside of the county, but transportation is costly, it limits inmates' access to the courts and their families and availability of future beds is uncertain unless the county enters long-term contracts.