WASHINGTON (AP) — Former President Donald Trump had rock-solid support from New Hampshire Republicans in his primary victory Tuesday, with even most backers of rival Nikki Haley acknowledging the GOP belongs to him.
Yet as Trump’s hold on securing the party’s nomination tightened, AP VoteCast found that some voters express concerns that he is too extreme to compete in the November general election. Some also worry about his legal peril in a trio of pending criminal trials.
Haley, a former South Carolina governor and a U.N. ambassador under Trump, performed relatively better with college graduates and moderates, a possible sign that Trump has yet to expand his political base.
The survey found signs that primary voters on the Democratic side rallied around President Joe Biden. He won in New Hampshire with strong support on the economy, but many have concerns about his age – he is 81 — and his handling of the situation in the Middle East.
Only weeks into 2024, voters have already shown an awareness of Trump’s strengths and liabilities. But even as the coronavirus, the major challenge during the 2020 election, has faded from public view, the cultural and social forces of that Biden-Trump matchup have hardened in ways that are testing the country’s sense of itself.
The New Hampshire primaries are unique because undeclared voters –- those not affiliated with either party –- can choose to vote in either party’s primary. This draws in voters who are not necessarily party loyalists.
More than 4 in 10 GOP primary voters were not affiliated with a party, compared with about 2 in 10 in the Democratic primary. Among those affiliated with the Republican Party in the state, Trump won handily.
AP VoteCast is a survey of 1,968 New Hampshire voters who are taking part in the Republican primary and 903 Democratic primary voters. The survey is conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
HOW TRUMP WON IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
New Hampshire’s demographics favored Trump.
He won in the small towns and rural communities, where about two-thirds of primary participants say they live. Most GOP voters in the state lack a college degree; about two-thirds of them voted for Trump. He won about 7 in 10 Republican voters who identified as conservatives.
Trump was backed by Republicans who prioritize either immigration or the economy, the two top issues among GOP voters in New Hampshire and Iowa, where the former president won the leadoff caucuses last week.
Among those in New Hampshire who named immigration as their top priority, about three-quarters support Trump. New Hampshire’s primary voters agreed with Trump on the need to limit immigration and build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border.
About half of those who said the economy was the top issue backed Trump.
HOW HALEY’S STRENGTHS FELL SHORT
Haley drew her support from groups that could be crucial in November. But those groups were distinct minorities in the GOP electorate.
She beat Trump among primary participants who were not formally affiliated with any party. About half of Haley’s supporters graduated from college, just as about half of them identify as moderates.
In many cases, her backers were simply uncomfortable with Trump.
Haley performed well among those who said Trump did something illegal in at least one of the criminal cases against him. And in the 2020 presidential election, about half of Haley’s supporters voted for Biden, a Democrat.
Iowa exposed suburban voters as a potential weakness for Trump. While Haley did slightly better in New Hampshire’s suburban communities than she did in other areas, she still didn’t pull ahead of Trump in those areas.
POTENTIAL WEAKNESSES FOR TRUMP
Compared with Iowa caucusgoers, New Hampshire Republican primary voters have slightly more doubts about Trump.
In New Hampshire, about half of GOP voters are very or somewhat concerned that Trump is too extreme to win the general election. Only about one-third say the same about Haley.
Regarding Trump’s criminal indictments, about one-third of GOP participants in New Hampshire believe he has done something illegal related to either his alleged attempt to interfere in the vote count in the 2020 presidential election, his role in what happened at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, or the classified documents found at his Florida home after he left the White House.
REPUBLICAN VOTERS EXPECT TRUMP TO BE GOP NOMINEE
The vast majority of Republican voters in New Hampshire, about 8 in 10, believed Trump would win the nomination, a finding that came after his dominant showing in Iowa.
Only about 2 in 10 say Haley will be the nominee. In a blow to a candidate who has pitched herself as a Trump alternative, more than half of Haley’s own supporters think Trump will represent the party on the ballot.
About 8 in 10 say they decided before Iowa which candidate they would support. After the caucuses, three contenders ended their campaigns: biotech investor Vivek Ramaswamy, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
About 6 in 10 GOP voters say they had their minds made up more than a month ago, including about 4 in 10 saying they have known all along.
BIDEN'S DEMOCRATIC COALITION COMES INTO FOCUS
Biden’s New Hampshire victory provided key insights into the Democratic coalition.
About half hold a college degree, as education has become a major political dividing line across the country. There was almost universal support among Democratic voters for abortion to be legal in most if not all cases. About three-quarters called discrimination against Black people a major problem.
The polling also suggested that the economy might be evolving into a strength for Biden among his base. High inflation had hurt his approval ratings for most of his presidency, but inflation has eased without disrupting job growth and Democrats are showing newfound support for Biden’s agenda. More than 8 in 10 approved of his economic leadership.
There are limits on what New Hampshire can reveal, as the state is less urban, less suburban and less racially diverse than the rest of the country. Cities, suburbs and non-white voters were crucial elements of Biden's winning 2020 coalition.
Still, not everything Biden does received strong plaudits in New Hampshire. Only about 6 in 10 approve of how he is handling immigration, and only about half approve of his handling of the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians.
About 4 in 10 say Biden is too old to serve a second term as president.
During his presidency, the Democratic Party has chosen to make South Carolina the first official presidential contest, a choice that has relegated Biden to write-in status in New Hampshire. Just over half said it is very or somewhat important to them that New Hampshire’s presidential primary is the first in the nation.
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MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) — Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, tightening his grip on the Republican presidential nomination and bolstering the likelihood of a rematch later this year against President Joe Biden.
The result was a setback for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who invested significant time and financial resources into winning the state but finished second. She was the last major challenger in the race after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ended his presidential bid over the weekend, allowing her to campaign as the sole alternative to Trump. Haley intensified her criticism of the former president, questioning his mental acuity and pitching herself as a unifying candidate who would usher in generational change.
The appeals failed to resonate with enough voters. Trump can now boast of being the first Republican presidential candidate to win open races in Iowa and New Hampshire since both states began leading the election calendar in 1976, a striking sign of how rapidly Republicans have rallied around him to make him their nominee for the third consecutive time.
By posting easy wins in both early states, Trump is demonstrating an ability to unite the GOP’s factions firmly behind him. He’s garnered support from the evangelical conservatives who are influential in Iowa and New Hampshire’s more moderate voters, strength he hopes to replicate as the primary quickly expands to the rest of the U.S.
Haley was unable to capitalize on New Hampshire’s more moderate political tradition. Now, her path to becoming the GOP standard-bearer is narrowing quickly. She won’t compete in a contest that awards delegates until South Carolina’s Feb. 24 primary. As the state’s former governor, she’s hoping a strong showing there could propel her into the March 5 Super Tuesday contests. But in a deeply conservative state where Trump is exceedingly popular, those ambitions may be tough to realize and a home-state loss could prove politically devastating.
President Joe Biden, meanwhile, won New Hampshire's Democratic primary via a write-in effort after the state party moved forward with its own contest. Biden did not appear on the ballot but allies helped him beat a series of little-known challengers.
Trump’s position in the contest is remarkable considering he faces 91 criminal charges related to everything from seeking to overturn the 2020 presidential election to mishandling classified documents and arranging payoffs to a porn actress. He left the White House in 2021 in the grim aftermath of an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol led by his supporters who sought to stop the certification of Biden’s win. And Trump was the first president to be impeached twice.
But Trump has turned those vulnerabilities into an advantage among GOP voters. He has argued that the criminal prosecutions reflect a politicized Justice Department, though there’s no evidence that officials there were pressured by Biden or anyone else in the White House to file charges. Trump has nonetheless repeatedly told his supporters that he’s being prosecuted on their behalf, an argument that appears to have further strengthened his bond with the GOP base.
As Trump begins to pivot his attention to Biden and a general election campaign, the question is whether the former president’s framing of the legal cases will persuade voters beyond the GOP base. Trump lost the popular vote in the 2016 and 2020 elections and has faced particular struggles in suburban communities from Georgia to Pennsylvania to Arizona that could prove decisive in the fall campaign.
Beyond the political vulnerabilities associated with the criminal cases, Trump faces a logistical challenge in balancing trials and campaigning. He has frequently appeared voluntarily at a New York courtroom where a jury is considering whether he should pay additional damages to a columnist who last year won a $5 million jury award against Trump for sex abuse and defamation. He has turned these appearances into campaign events, holding televised news conferences that give him an opportunity to spread his message to a large audience.
He has no choice but to appear in court when the criminal cases begin, which could happen later this spring.
Biden faces his own challenges, though of a different magnitude. There are widespread concerns about his age at 81 years old. Dissent is also building within his party over Biden’s alliance with Israel in its war against Hamas, putting the president’s standing at risk in swing states like Michigan.
Biden championed new Democratic National Committee rules that have its 2024 primary beginning on Feb. 3 in South Carolina, rather than in Iowa or New Hampshire. That left him in something of an awkward position at the outset of the nomination process.
But Democrats in New Hampshire defied the revamped order and held their primary on Tuesday, same as the Republicans. Biden didn’t campaign, giving the state’s Democrats the chance to support primary challengers including Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson — though many of New Hampshire’s top Democrats backed a write-in campaign that Biden could still win.
Trump traveled frequently to New Hampshire in the months leading up to the primary but didn’t spend as much time in the state as many of his rivals. That included former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a fierce Trump critic who enjoyed some popularity in the state but suspended his campaign mere days before Iowa’s caucuses in an attempt to blunt the former president’s momentum.
Rather than the traditional approach of greeting voters personally or in small groups, Trump has staged large rallies. He has spent much of his time complaining about the past — including the lie that the 2020 election was stolen due to widespread voter fraud.
If he returns to the White House, the former president has promised to enact a hardline immigration agenda that includes stopping migrants from crossing the U.S.-Mexico border and reimposing his first-term travel ban that originally targeted seven Muslim-majority countries. He’s also said the rising number of immigrants entering the United States are “poisoning the blood of our country,” echoing Adolf Hitler’s language.