WICHITA — There were slightly fewer tornadoes reported in Kansas and only one tornado watch issued for the central portion of the state in 2023.
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in Wichita are tallying preliminary results from last year’s severe weather reports. Chance Hayes, the office’s warning coordination meteorologist, said the Sunflower State recorded 44 tornadoes in 2023.
That figure is down slightly from the 2022 tornado total of 68, according to data from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. In 2021, Kansas had 46 tornadoes, and in 2020 the state experienced only 27 twisters, respectively. Hayes said severe weather patterns operate in cycles, and he’s observed similar lulls in tornadic activity in his career.
“I tell folks all the time, things happen in cycles,” Hayes said. “Right now, we’re in one of those low times, where the number of tornadoes is low, but we’re anticipating that we’ll likely pop out of it this year.”
Hayes drew a parallel with the current climatological patterns to those that existed over the Plains states from 1987-89, which saw lower numbers of tornadoes and tornado-warned storms. Then, in 1990 and 1991, more than 100 tornadoes occurred in Kansas, including devastating storms that slammed communities such as Hesston and Andover.
Hayes said 2023 was below normal for tornado watches issued, including one watch that covered central Kansas counties along the I-35 corridor. That watch was issued the evening of Jan. 2, 2023. Preliminary data from scientists at the Storm Prediction Center indicates a nationwide total of 179 tornado watches and 544 severe thunderstorm watches last year. In all, the contiguous 48 states observed 1,423 tornadoes in 2023.
2023 was also the last full year for Hayes in his role at NWS Wichita, as he will be retiring Jan. 12 after 31 years with the National Weather Service. He started his meteorology career in 1993 in Louisville, Kentucky, and transferred to the Wichita office in 1995. He said retirement will allow him to spend more time revisiting some of his “early loves,” such as restoring a classic Ford Mustang convertible. Hayes also plans to do some storm chasing this year.
He’s proud of the work he’s accomplished in 31 years.
“One of the things I’m most proud of is the ability for all our partners to work together underneath the weather enterprise,” Hayes said. “We all come together for one goal, to keep people safe.”
That combined effort among emergency officials and meteorologists has led to Kansas experiencing zero tornado-related deaths in almost 12 years. The last tornado death occurred on Feb. 28, 2012, when a twister struck the small community of Harveyville in southwest Wabaunsee County just after 9 p.m. The 150-yard-wide tornado heavily damaged about 40% of the town, including the Harveyville United Methodist Church, an apartment complex and multiple homes. It also gravely injured 53-year-old Richard Slade, when his home collapsed on top of him. He died in a Topeka hospital a day later. Weeks after the tornado, scientists rated it an EF-2, with wind speeds estimated between 111 and 135 miles per hour based on the damage.
New year predictions
NWS Wichita meteorologist James Cuellar agreed with Hayes that Kansas is overdue for an active severe weather season.
“If you look back at the classic tornado outbreaks, Kansas hasn’t had one since April 14, 2012,” Cuellar said. “We’ve had tornadoes since then, but they were all part of these spottier, more localized events.”
Cuellar noted that the year is starting in an El Nino climate pattern, which on average leads to slightly warmer and wetter winters.
“Usually that wetter part happens in the latter half of winter, going into spring,” Cuellar said, “so you could interpret that pattern as being more active in early spring months.”
In the more immediate future, Cuellar and other meteorologists are tracking the potential for accumulating snowfall statewide and a possible winter storm Monday into Tuesday.
Cuellar said a lot of his weather models are showing “pretty high” precipitation levels for early next week, but it’s still too far out to be certain. KSN-TV meteorologist Lisa Teachman said she expects the storm system arriving Monday to be “even stronger” than the previous system, with snowfall potential looking “probable” into Tuesday.